In this post I estimate the doubling time of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, Canada and Germany using daily death count data. At the current rate, COVID-19 deaths will exceed 2009 H1N1 deaths by early April in the US, and deaths due to COVID-19 are accelerating faster in the US than the rate of coronavirus deaths in Italy at the beginning of the pandemic there. Germany and Canada show lower rates of spread than the US, but do not yet show evidence of “flattening of the curve”. Continue reading
Since 1962, the CDC has monitored death certificates on a weekly basis from 122 cities in the US. The CDC tallies the number of death certificates, and the number of deaths due to pneumonia, and the number of deaths due to influenza. Here I examine these data during the US COVID-19 shutdown in March, 2020. Aggregated across the country, all-cause deaths are significantly down. However, there is significant geographical variation, with some states (like New York) showing extreme excess in mortality.