**In this module students will compare the performance of several fitting methods (Least squares, Pearson chi-squared, and likelihood fitting methods) in estimating the rate of exponential rise in initial epidemic incidence data. Students will learn about the properties of good estimators (bias and efficiency).**

**A good reference source for this material is Statistical Data Analysis, by G.Cowan
**

**Another good reference source (in a very condensed format) for statistical data analysis methods can be found** here.

Contents:

Introduction

Properties of good estimators

Generating simulated exponential rise data

Estimation of the rate of exponential rise: Least Squares

Estimation of the rate of exponential rise: Pearson chi-squared

The Poisson maximum likelihood method

Estimation of parameter confidence intervals: any maximum likelihood method

Estimation of the rate of exponential rise: Poisson maximum likelihood method

Testing for over- or under-dispersion.

Correcting for over- or under-dispersion

Better method for determination of parameter estimates and their covariance when using the Pearson chi-squared method